@Stevo2000 I think you're spot on, the dead heats really impact EV, and it's interesting you've noticed a decline in Bookie's giving good odds. I've noticed over the last 2 months, the number of bets for events even coming through the tool is getting lower and lower.
I'm applying that logic of knowing the players a bit to vary my stakes accordingly, exactly like Tommy Fleetwood, who has been improving throughout the season. I put more on than Kelly, which helped, but profits seem to be tricky to come by with a complete whiff at the British Masters last week