General Discussion
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I actually bucked the trend slightly at the weekend with Tommy fleetwood to win, but this was mainly due to the fact i had £10 each way on him. I vary my stakes based on the odds, and my knowledge of the players etc (not scientific i know)
I'm overall -£120 on the golf master, and around +£1500 on EWNL over almost 6500 bets.
Here's the reason i think most people are struggling. I did an admittedly small sample size of recent tournaments and found roughly a 75% place payout due to ties. The EV doesn't take account of this, so maybe this is something that can be built into the software. I then took a player (todd clements EV 117%) and applied that logic, and found that EV was now significantly less than 117%
I believe that more people now betting on golf, ha led to the bookies adjusting prices, so i think that @administrators need to look again at the software, and include ties in the EV calculation, which will result in far fewer bets needing to be placed
happy top share my data with @administrators -
@Stevo2000 I think you're spot on, the dead heats really impact EV, and it's interesting you've noticed a decline in Bookie's giving good odds. I've noticed over the last 2 months, the number of bets for events even coming through the tool is getting lower and lower.
I'm applying that logic of knowing the players a bit to vary my stakes accordingly, exactly like Tommy Fleetwood, who has been improving throughout the season. I put more on than Kelly, which helped, but profits seem to be tricky to come by with a complete whiff at the British Masters last week
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Bet365 missing from the tool
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Rory Mc doing me dirty on my 3rd playoff loss.
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@cpsharples50 that eagle of his on the 18th cost me what would have been my biggest ever single result. Locked in a bit on McIlroy but gutted nonetheless
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@Tolio me too, i was on +£600 if mcilroy had missed that eagle putt
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@Stevo2000 I know I also bet twice on him by accident so would have had a mega win
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Finally a decent priced winner this week, i had both players in the playoff in the BMW, and a few scottie scheffler underlaid boosts to give me about £300 profit. Golf master is back in the black, lets hope it stays that way
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273 bets in, +£350 EV, -£670 Actual (~£1k down including purchase price) - fair to call this tool a dud yet?
Interested to know whether anyone else has a graph quite as bad as this? Is it really a case of waiting for one big win? Or are people getting any benefit from places paid that keep them in profit? -
The odd high odds place helps but I’ve found I need to be hitting one winner across a few competitions in a week to make profit. Chart below.
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@MrNoRisk - wow this is brilliant! Even though I’ve been using the Golfmaster since June with work commitments ( and concentrating on the EPM!) I’ve only put 26 bets on and I’m running at - £54 . My main stumbling block is knowing what stakes to put on. Just to dip my toe in the water I’ve been using £2.50 each way stakes what are your parameters! Thanks!
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@samsmum1 I’m using Kelly stakes with £2k bankroll, backing 20-30 players per tournament. Mainly 6 each across paddy sky and Betfair and then a couple with other sites.
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@MrNoRisk - oh wow - I don’t think my nerves could stand it lol
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A question for Admin - is there any reason why Bet 365 seem to have disappeared from GolfMaster? They used to generate lots of potential value bets but I haven’t seen anything for weeks
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@csutto1 I believe they are a bit of a nightmare at the moment, so we are limiting sports/markets in the short term.
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@Rich-OP nightmare in what respect?
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@csutto1 blocking us
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@Rich-OP similar situation now with other bookies such as Betfair, PP and Boyles?! Bit strange for it to be Tuesday night and absolutely no value to be showing in the GM
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Basically useless atm, I won’t be renewing
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@Jambon yeah this is pretty worrying if it turns out the bookies providing value can just block OP.
Also dangerous for our accounts when they see we’ve gone from placing tonnes of golf bets to hardly any after the block
