General Discussion
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Any advice, guys - I seem to be following what we're told to do, but I'm just not getting these sort of steady "monthly returns" I'm seeing in people's graphs and Outplayed promo stuff, just had one big winner which stopped the rot of a very rough start!
£800 bankroll, mainly using Kelly stakes, only hitting blue and green and putting between 30-45 bets on the highest number of places people (PP, Sky Bet, 365, etc...).
What's weird, I didn't even get Rose appearing in my list for last week, or was he at 3 places on Bet365, which I try to avoid.
Any tips to align more with the monthly returns I've seen? (other than just sticking with it and reviewing it after 1000 bets? I know there will be people saying I haven't got the stones for this, which is fair enough
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Odd's seem to be wrong for SkyBet on the Danish Tour, can someone check?
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Only a few weeks in and testing currently just below EV just did get a winner which helped and a 651/1 place
So far for me it's a good little side hustle on the main hustle of EPM and Lucky's but still not pushing bankroll until done a bit more
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What should I set my filters to on this?
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Few big wins over the weekend on this but I think my max winnings were capped, anyone else experienced this? The profit I had from a 651/1 and 401/1 were cut in half to what the GPM said I would have
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Not a bad start for me, but it does seem very high variance. Horses EPM compared to golf feels like 20p spins on casino vs £1 spins on a big bass slot. Over time the profit should be similar but feels like golf will be a much bumpier ride.
My graph was boosted by a 250/1 winner so without that it looks a lot worse, but then I did have lots of 2nd places that looked like winners until the very end so equally could have been well above EV.
Still unsure whether I’ll renew in November or stick to normal pro tier.
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@denholm11 were they dead heat places?
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@phoenix44 oh I have no idea to be honest, I just about understand the basics of Golf
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@denholm11 yeah they’re annoyingly common in golf, if for example your EW bet is 12 places and your golfer finishes T12 with 4 other golfers then it will wipe out most of your profit. Outplayed added a DH button alongside the normal W/L/V and it will calculate the correct return.
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For sure Dead Heats are annoying, I had Björn Åkesson last weekend at the Danish Champs, who was 651 odds and finished in 12th, but tied with one other player, so payout of 0.75p EW went from £100 to £50 for me.
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@phoenix44 ahh okay I got you, thanks! I just edited the odds until it matched the profit but will bear that in mind in future
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Any suggestions on the best filters to place on this?
Still trying to find my feet on using it advantageously -
225 bets in, £500 down not including the upgrade cost (more line £800 included) - if this is down purely to "variance" then I'm not sure it's worth the wait anymore hahaha
Have very little faith in this turning around, EWNL has been bad this month for me as well which doesn't help, but on the whole it's essentially subsidising this Golf tool for me -
how is this v the extra place master any one
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I actually bucked the trend slightly at the weekend with Tommy fleetwood to win, but this was mainly due to the fact i had £10 each way on him. I vary my stakes based on the odds, and my knowledge of the players etc (not scientific i know)
I'm overall -£120 on the golf master, and around +£1500 on EWNL over almost 6500 bets.
Here's the reason i think most people are struggling. I did an admittedly small sample size of recent tournaments and found roughly a 75% place payout due to ties. The EV doesn't take account of this, so maybe this is something that can be built into the software. I then took a player (todd clements EV 117%) and applied that logic, and found that EV was now significantly less than 117%
I believe that more people now betting on golf, ha led to the bookies adjusting prices, so i think that @administrators need to look again at the software, and include ties in the EV calculation, which will result in far fewer bets needing to be placed
happy top share my data with @administrators -
@Stevo2000 I think you're spot on, the dead heats really impact EV, and it's interesting you've noticed a decline in Bookie's giving good odds. I've noticed over the last 2 months, the number of bets for events even coming through the tool is getting lower and lower.
I'm applying that logic of knowing the players a bit to vary my stakes accordingly, exactly like Tommy Fleetwood, who has been improving throughout the season. I put more on than Kelly, which helped, but profits seem to be tricky to come by with a complete whiff at the British Masters last week
